JL Capital — Q3 2025 Investor Report
A concise review of performance, strategy, market context, and our forward view. This report uses percentage outcomes only and excludes any figures related to fund size.
Performance & Risk Visuals
Q3 Highlights
- JunETF & DAT flows buildInstitutional bid supports BTC
- JulETH restake queuesLong queues; sticky validator supply
- AugPerp activity upHyperliquid leads retail rotation
- SepBTC iATH / ETH USD ATHNew highs into quarter end
Executive Summary
Despite both Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching all time highs in the past quarter, our JL Signal rotating risk strategy beat a strict buy-and-hold strategy by 9.51%. This was enabled by calculated buying of dips and conservative buys and small sells around peaks.
Deploying only 53% of available capital, the strategy generated a quarterly return of 10.2% with a maximum drawdown of -6.5%, resulting in a Sharpe ratio of 2.22. On a capital-deployed basis, the strategy delivered a 21.5% return.
These results align with our core objective: consistently exceeding Bitcoin on a risk-adjusted basis.
Key Data Points & Benchmarks
Percentage outcomes only. Benchmarks are shown for context.
| Asset / Strategy | Q3 Return | Peak Profit | Max Drawdown | Sharpe | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JL Signal Strategy | +10.2% | +18.0% | -6.5% | 2.22 | 76.9% |
| BTC | +3.35% | +17.96% | -12.21% | 0.70 | 13.75% |
| SPY | +8.83% | +9.52% | -0.58% | 2.77 | 41.5% |
| Gold | +2.05% | +2.05% | -4.00% | 0.57 | 8.49% |
| US10Y | +1.06% | +1.06% | 0.00% | 0.71 | 4.25% |
Strategy Notes
- Signal-guided allocation between BTC, ETH, and stable assets.
- Lean in during favorable regimes and de-risk near local extremes.
- Objective is stronger risk-adjusted returns compared with passive exposure.
Market Commentary
Risk assets were supported by weaker USD and continued institutional participation through US-based ETFs and newly emerging Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), which pushed BTC to inflation-adjusted highs and ETH to new USD-denominated highs.
Long-term holders rotated partially into USDT and ETH, but the dominant flow was short-term retail exiting into long-term institutional hands. Exchange net outflows and lengthy ETH unstake→restake queues reinforced the picture of supply migrating into large, sticky wallets.
An anticipated alt season failed to arrive. Retail rotated toward on-chain perp venues, notably Hyperliquid, leaving thinner spot books managed by a handful of large market makers hedging perp flow. This dynamic increased altcoin volatility and reduced inter-alt correlations.
Across our indicator baskets, sentiment stayed muted despite strong momentum and record highs. Many retail participants either sold BTC/ETH too early or concentrated in under-performing alts.
Outlook & Strategy
We expect continued institutional accumulation with volatility around rate decisions. Into announcements, traders may attempt to front-run. If cuts proceed as expected we anticipate an upward bias as DXY weakens. Larger-than-expected cuts could trigger heavy volatility: initial spikes followed by weaker trends. A no-cut scenario risks sharp sell-the-news moves and potential DAT stress if mNAV dips below 1.0.
Our positioning remains unchanged: buy cyclical dips and trim into peaks. We frame this cycle as closer to a long-bull-short-bear structure typical in traditional finance — compounding capital while keeping drawdowns tight.
Upward bias as DXY weakens; trend continuation likely.
High volatility: initial pop, weaker follow-through.
Risk of sell-the-news liquidation; DATs vulnerable below mNAV 1.0.
This document is for information only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures shown are percentage outcomes and risk statistics only.